BMO Says Lower Home Prices in Canada Can Make A Mark in CPI Data

06:42 AM EST, 02/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's new home price index (NHPI) fell a "heavy" 0.4% month over month in January, and was down an even larger 0.6% month over month for the "house only" part -- in other words, not including land prices, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The latter feeds into the monthly consumer price index with a one-month delay, and that large drop will as such dampen next month's result, noted the bank.

The 0.6% drop is the largest monthly decline since early 2009, and brings these prices 3.4% below year-ago levels, stated BMO.

With a weight of 4.6% in the overall CPI basket, new home prices can make a mark -- the yearly drop has already sliced about 0.15 ppts from headline inflation, added the bank.

While the usual suspects of Toronto (-5.8% year over year) and Vancouver (-3.3%) are present, cities such as Hamilton (-7.5%), Edmonton (-5.3%) and Calgary (-4.6%) have also been soft.

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