Short-term JGB yields fall as cooling inflation reduces BOJ rate hike pressure

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 02/19/26 09:04 PM EST

By Rocky Swift

TOKYO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Short-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) rose on Friday, sending yields lower, after data showing cooling inflation reduced the urgency for early rate hikes ?by the central bank.

Long-term JGBs were ?poised for a weekly gain as consensus built that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ?sweeping electoral victory earlier this month would allow her ?to keep to a pledge of "responsible" stimulus.

The two-year ?yield, the one ?most sensitive to Bank of Japan policy rates, decreased 0.5 basis point (bp) ?to 1.25%. The five-year yield slid ?2.5 bps to 1.605%. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

Japan's annual core consumer inflation hit 2.0% ?in January, marking the slowest ?pace in ?two years, data showed. That's in line with the BOJ's projection that inflation will briefly slow below its ?2% target.

Long-term JGB yields surged to record highs ?last month as concerns about Japan's fiscal health swelled after Takaichi, a fiscal dove, called a snap election and pledged to cut sales taxes on food for two years.

But a ?measure ?of calm has returned to the market ?in recent weeks, with yields falling and resilient demand seen ?in JGB auctions.

"It may be that Japan's one-party dominance system is attracting global attention amid political instability in major developed nations, thereby stimulating demand from investors who previously showed little interest in JGBs," Ataru Okumura, a senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities, said in ?a report.

The benchmark 10-year JGB yield fell 5 bps to 2.090%. Longer-dated securities had yet to trade but were ?poised for steep declines this ?week.

(Reporting by Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing ?by Subhranshu Sahu)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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