TSX Closer: Index Sets a Second Consecutive Record Close and the 13th of 2026

04:14 PM EST, 02/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday set its second-straight record close and 13th of 2026 already, buoyed in particular by Energy stocks, but also by some optimism around the economy after data showed Canada's trade deficit narrowed in December to cap a volatile 2025.

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 205.25 points, or 0.6%, to 33,594.98 with most sectors higher, led by Energy, up 2.15%, and the Battery Metals Index, up 1.6%. No sector fell by more than 0.5%

Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at a six-month high on Thursday as traders raise the commodity's risk premium on concerns the United States is poised to attack Iran, a conflict that could threaten to choke off exports from the Persian Gulf region that supplies about a fifth of the world's oil demand. President Donald Trump on Thursday afternoon urged Iran to make a deal, suggesting he could reach a decision on potential military action within 10 days. WTI oil for March delivery closed up US$1.24 to settle at US$66.43 per barrel, the highest since Aug. 1, while April Brent crude was last seen up US$1.32 to US$71.68.

Gold edged higher late afternoon Thursday, but was sticking above the US$5,000 mark despite closed China markets as tensions between the U.S. and Iran rise, while the dollar was higher as minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy committee indicated the central bank may not be ready for another cut to interest rates, and even a rate hike might be possible next. Gold for March delivery was last seen up US$10.80 to US$5,020.30 per ounce.

On trade, for Nathan Janzen, Assistant Chief Economist at RBC, the bottom line is that the trade deficit narrowed in December to cap a year in which Canada's trade flows were heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs, but still by less than feared earlier in the year when tariff threats were at their most extreme.

Janzen noted most Canadian exports, almost 90%, remained duty free last year thanks to the exemption from tariffs for products compliant with the CUSMA free trade agreement, but exports of products specifically targeted by tariffs; steel and aluminum, forestry, and motor-vehicle products, fell sharply and overall export volumes, excluding price impacts, were still down 2% despite some offset from increased shipments to other parts of the world.

Janzen also noted significant trade uncertainty remains with negotiations on CUSMA renewal set to kick off in coming months, but RBC continues to expect, as a base-case, that a more stable international trade backdrop in 2026, "albeit still at significantly higher tariff rates", will leave trade as less of a headwind to growth than it was in 2025. U.S. tariff rates have edged slightly lower in recent months, and the average rate imposed on imports from Canada remains relatively low, he noted.

"That, coupled with the lagged impact of earlier Bank of Canada interest rate cuts and higher government spending plans will support further improvement in per-person (and per-worker) economic conditions in the year ahead," Janzen added.

Still, Scotiabank noted with the U.S. Supreme Court expected to rule on the legality of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs soon, there could be renewed turbulence in the ongoing U.S. global trade war. Scotia said if these tariffs are struck down, these could be replaced under a new mechanism, which would likely again be challenged, leading to renewed uncertainty. For Canada, the sectoral tariffs are by far the most impactful, and will continue to weigh on the Canadian economy as long as they remain in place, the bank added.

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