TSX up Near 100 Points at Midday, Led by Gains in Energy

12:31 PM EST, 02/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange is up near 100 points at midday with energy, up 2.2%, and industrials (+0.5%) the best performers.

Limiting gains are declines in materials (-1.5%) and financials (-0.6%).

On the domestic front, TD Economics noted Canada's trade deficit halved from $2.6 billion in November to $1.3 billion in December. Exports in December advanced 2.6% month-on-month, partially recovering last month's dip. Goods imports edged higher by 0.6% m/m in December, with six of 11 subsectors booking gains. In volume terms, both merchandise exports and imports were up 1.4% m/m.

Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the United States narrowed from $6.5 billion in November to $5.7 billion in December. Exports to non-U.S. destinations rose by 5.8% m/m, reaching an all-time high.

"This was a solid print for Canadian trade to cap off 2025. However, the details confirm that the recovery in trade since early last year has been volatile and uneven, particularly with product categories like precious metals experiencing substantial month-to-month swings. All told, exports outpaced imports in the fourth quarter, which should act as a tailwind to Q4 real GDP growth," TD said.

On the upcoming CUSMA review, TD's base case is that the agreement remains in place, scenarios involving U.S. withdrawal could expose Canadian exporters to significantly higher tariffs and prolonged policy uncertainty, weighing on business confidence and investment. The pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of IEEPA tariffs could also affect potential outcomes, it added.

CIBC says that while net trade will be a positive for Q4 GDP, "that doesn't mean that exports are recovering particularly strongly from the declines seen over the spring of 2025." CIBC noted there remains great divergence by sector, with exports of products hit hardest by US tariffs generally still depressed, which highlights the importance of renegotiating CUSMA and maintaining the tariff exemption for other products covered by that trade deal.

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