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SocGen Says Markets See Latest CPI Tipping Balance Toward A Bank of England March Rate Cut

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 02/19/26 11:25 AM EST

11:25 AM EST, 02/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Societe Generale said this week's United Kingdom consumer price index (CPI) print, which was the only release ahead of the March Bank of England policy meeting, was the main hurdle to a March rate cut, especially after Tuesday's labor data confirmed the ongoing trends of the jobs market loosening and easing wage growth.

While there were some clear positives, notably the sharp fall in food inflation, the stickiness in services inflation may give Governor Andrew Bailey, the swing voter on the Monetary Policy Committee, pause for thought, noted the bank.

However, markets believe the hurdle for a March cut has been cleared, with the probability priced at 80%-85% at the time of SocGen's note to clients.

Beyond the expected March or April cut, SocGen anticipates two further 25bps cuts, taking Bank Rate to 3%. The bank's expectations of below-potential growth, additional labor market loosening through H1 2026 and further declines in services inflation are broadly consistent with the BoE's weaker-demand scenario.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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