National Bank Notes Canada's Goods Trade Deficit

11:12 AM EST, 02/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- As has often been the case recently, the change in Canada's trade balance in December could largely be explained by fluctuations in the metal and non-metallic mineral products sector, particularly in the unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals sub-sector, National Bank of Canada said.

The continued rise in precious metal prices during the month indeed resulted in a 37.1% increase in international shipments in the latter segment, without which total exports would have fallen by 0.6% during the month, noted the bank after Thursday's release of the international merchandise trade data.

This monthly increase also capped a year in which exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum rose by 41.7%, the most since 2011. However, the narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit in December wasn't just a story of precious metals.

Exports of aircraft and transportation equipment benefited from increased deliveries of business jets to the United States, surging to a new record high of $3.5 billion.

Imports also increased in December, largely due to the unwrought gold, silver and platinum segment, which recorded a 53.5% surge. That said, the motor-vehicles segment also contributed, having been negatively affected by semiconductor shortages in previous months, added National Bank.

A study of quarterly trade volumes suggests international trade will contribute positively to gross domestic product growth in Q4 2025, with exports growing at a higher rate than imports, added the bank. Meanwhile, the slight increase in import volumes in the machinery and equipment category (+2.0% annualized) suggests that business equipment spending may have stabilized in the quarter.

Overall in 2025, the Canadian goods trade balance showed a $31.3 billion deficit, the largest shortfall in five years. The goods trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed from $101.3 billion to a five-year low of $81.6 billion.

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