CIBC Says Markets Largely Ignore Canada's Trade Data

10:10 AM EST, 02/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in December from a revised $2.6 billion in the prior month, said CIBC.

Exports rose 2.6% on the month, although excluding the volatility in the metal and non-metallic mineral sector, exports were actually little changed, noted the bank. While trade with countries other than the United Sttaes reached a record high, that was flattered somewhat by increased gold shipments to the United Kingdom.

For Q4 as a whole, inflation-adjusted exports rose at an annualized rate of 8.5%, outpacing the 1.4% increase in imports. That suggests a further positive contribution from net trade to quarterly gross domestic product in Q4, although that will likely be offset at least partly by slower inventory accumulation.

While net trade will be a positive for Q4 GDP, that doesn't mean that exports are recovering particularly strongly from the declines seen over the spring of 2025. There remains great divergence by sector, with exports of products hit hardest by U.S. tariffs generally still depressed, which highlights the importance of renegotiating CUSMA and maintaining the tariff exemption for other products covered by that trade deal.

Markets were largely unmoved by Tuesday's trade data, according to CIBC.

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