CIBC Says Canada's Trade Figures Likely Boost Q4 GDP But Low Volumes Signal Impact From Tariffs

08:55 AM EST, 02/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in December from a revised $2.6 billion in the prior month, although once again the move was largely driven by volatility in the trade of gold, said CIBC after Thursday's data release.

Exports rose 2.6% on the month, although excluding the volatility the in metal and non-metallic mineral sector exports were actually little changed, noted the bank.

In volume terms, overall exports rose by 1.4% month over month.

While exports to countries other than the United States reached a record high, that was flattered somewhat by increased gold shipments to the United Kingdom, stated CIBC.

Imports increased by 0.6% month over month, and by a stronger 1.4% in volume terms. Imports of autos rebounded following a dip in the prior month, partly offset by a decline in consumer goods.

For Q4 as a whole, inflation-adjusted exports rose more than imports, suggesting a further positive contribution from net trade to quarterly gross domestic product, according to the bank.

However, overall export volumes remain lower than they were throughout most of 2024, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and related trade uncertainty, it added.

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