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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 02/19/26 07:21 AM EST

07:21 AM EST, 02/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release its international merchandise trade data for December at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The merchandise trade deficit looks to clock in at $2.0 billion in December, in line with the previous month, noted the bank. Energy exports will be weighed by lower crude oil prices, but tough winter weather will boost natural gas.

Shipments of precious metals are expected to recover from the previous month's slump, thanks to higher prices, although they are unlikely to return to October's highs, stated BMO. Exports (excluding energy and metals) and imports will have little support from a modestly positive manufacturing flash.

In all, trade volumes could provide a much-needed boost to real gross domestic product in what was otherwise a lackluster Q4, pointed out the bank.

The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) is expected to dip 0.1% month over month in January, which will leave it down 2.1% year over year, added BMO. The latter is the steepest drop since September 2009.

The US dollar (USD) is a bit firmer (BBDXY +0.05%) early, with the loonie the same (CAD per USD -0.05%) early Thursday, according to the bank.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

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