TD Sees Poor Housing Performance This Year Too In Canada

10:55 AM EST, 02/18/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian existing home sales declined 5.8% month over month in January, said TD after Tuesday's data.

Sales were lower in every province in Canada last month, with steep drops recorded in Manitoba (-10.6% month over month), Ontario (-8.9%) and British Columbia (-8.2%). Meanwhile, sales were down by about 7% across the Atlantic.

New listings surged 7.3% month over month in January. With sales falling and new listings rising, the sales-to-new listings ratio plunged well below the long-run average to 45%, signaling modest near-term price growth moving forward, noted the bank.

Canadian average home prices declined 1.7% month over month amid falling demand and rising supply. Nearly mirroring the sales trend, prices were down in most regions, with sizeable declines observed in Saskatchewan (-2% month over month), Ontario (-1.6%) and Manitoba (-1.4%). Nova Scotia registered a massive 10.1% month over month decline -- one of the largest on record -- although this looks primed for a reversal in February.

Elsewhere, prices were down about 0.5% in Alberta and B.C. while being flat in Quebec.

The MLS home price index, a more "like-for-like" measure, fell 0.9% month over month and is down 4.9% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.8% month over month, while condo prices fell 0.7% month over month.

This was an exceedingly slow start to the year for Canadian housing, although outsized weakness in Central and Atlantic Canada points to winter storms impacting January's figures, suggesting the potential for some bounce-back in February, stated TD. Weather-related volatility aside, the trend in Canadian home sales has been subdued since last August.

Several factors are likely weighing on the market, including cost-of-living and economic uncertainty concerns for households, a weak underlying economy and soft population growth. Falling prices in markets like Ontario and B.C. may also be keeping potential buyers sidelined as they wait for a bottom, added the bank.

With these headwinds in place, another subpar year for the Canadian housing market is likely on tap in 2026, according TD. However, some pent-up demand should offer some limit to the downside in B.C. and Ontario, and price growth should be stronger outside of these two provinces.

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