National Bank Previews Macroeconomics Data in Canada for the Rest of the Week, With CPI Already Out

09:20 AM EST, 02/17/2026 (MT Newswires) -- In looking at the rest of the week ahead, now that the key focus, the latest inflation data, is already out today, National Bank noted the Canadian December retail sales report will be closely watched on Friday.

Judging by earlier auto sales data, which showed an increase during the month, spending at car dealerships is likely to have had a positive impact on the headline figure, the bank said. However, this may have been offset by a decline in spending at gasoline stations due to lower pump prices, it added.

Overall, National Bank said headline goods expenditure is expected to have fallen by 0.5% month over month. Excluding automobiles, sales may have fared slightly better, with a more subdued decline of 0.4%, it added.

National Bank noted the week will also feature the publication of the December merchandise trade balance on Thursday. It said the decrease in commodity prices observed during the month may have weighed on exports, but this drag may have been more than offset by an increase in gold shipments.

As a consequence, total exports may have expanded, and since National Bank believes this gain was only partially offset by an increase in imports, the trade deficit may have narrowed from $2.2 billion to $1.4 billion, it added.

On other releases, National Bank said Wednesday's existing home sales may have declined by 5.8% month over month nationally in the final month of the year, hampered by weaker sales in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.

The bank will also monitor the release of the February edition of the CFIB Business Barometer on Thursday, and on the central bank side, it will keep an eye on the release Friday of the Senior Loan Officer Survey, which collects information on business-lending practices of Canadian financial institutions.

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