RBC Previews Tuesday's CPI Data in Canada

06:30 AM EST, 02/17/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Tuesday's Consumer Price Index report for January should show a tick higher in Canadian headline inflation to 2.6% year over year, largely due to tax-related distortions -- the prior year's GST/HST holiday wasn't repeated this year -- alongside still elevated grocery price growth, said RBC.

Canada is slated to release January's CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday.

Food price growth could spike above 7% in January, driven by rising restaurant costs compared with tax-exempt levels a year ago, noted the bank. But, grocery store price growth also likely remained high after hitting 5% in November. Energy prices, meanwhile, are tracking 11% below a year ago, with gasoline down 17% -- roughly half attributable to the removal of the carbon tax.

RBC estimates CPI non-seasonally adjusted at 0.3% month over month.

The Bank of Canada has limited control over global commodity trends affecting energy and food prices. The central bank will continue monitoring broader underlying price growth measures more closely, according to RBC. Median and trim CPI measures, which exclude indirect tax impacts, are expected to hold around 2.5% year-over-year-and have been gradually edging lower-but remain above the 2% target.

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