TREASURIES-US yields jump after stronger-than-expected jobs report?

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 02/11/26 10:01 AM EST

*

Labor market report exceeds expectations, dampening Fed rate cut hopes

*

Unemployment rate drops to 4.3%, nonfarm payrolls rise by 130,000

*

Fed rate cut expectations for March drop to 6% after jobs data

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields shot higher on Wednesday, after a report on the labor market handily topped expectations and dampened views the Federal ?Reserve could have the cushion for a rate cut. The Labor Department said ?nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs in January after a downwardly revised 48,000 rise in December, topping the estimate of economists polled by Reuters that called for a ?70,000 increase.

In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% last month from 4.4% in December.

"It was definitely a ?surprise this morning to see the numbers be this strong, including not only the ?number of jobs added, but the ?unemployment rate declining and the average hourly earnings increasing, so it's just kind of like a good report all the way around," said JoAnne Bianco, partner ?and senior investment strategist at BondBloxx Investment Management in Chicago.

"There were a ?lot of things that were causing the market to be less optimistic coming into the nonfarm payroll numbers today." Market expectations that the Federal Reserve could have leeway to reduce rates in the near-term ?had been creeping higher this week, after a soft retail ?sales report ?signaled consumers were dialing back spending, and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett on Monday tempered expectations on job gains in the coming months, citing slower labor force growth and higher productivity.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. ?10-year Treasury note rose 3.5 basis points to 4.18% after hitting a session high of 4.206%.

After a solid auction ?of $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, more supply will come to the market this week as the Treasury will auction $42 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

The yield on the 30-year bond rose 2.2 basis points to 4.81% after reaching 4.834%. Market expectations for a Fed cut of at least 25 basis points at the ?central bank's ?March meeting had risen to about 20% before the jobs data, sinking back to ?a roughly 6% after the report, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Expectations for a cut at the June meeting, the first meeting ?pricing in more than a 50% chance for a reduction of at least 25 basis points, dipped to 60.5% from 75.2% on Tuesday.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 66.0 basis points.

Fed officials scheduled to speak on Wednesday include Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in ?step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose 6.4 basis points, on track for its biggest daily jump since October 29, to 3.518%.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.514% after closing at 2.491% on February ?10.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.335%, ?indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.

(Reporting ?by Chuck Mikolajczak Editing by Nick Zieminski)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article