January US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 67,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Unchanged

02:28 PM EST, 02/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 67,000 in January after a 50,000-jobs gain in December, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.

The January employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Wednesday.

Annual revision to the establishment survey data, which include the payrolls, hourly earnings and employment series, will be incorporated into release.

Layoffs intentions surged in January from December, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, hitting the highest point for a January report since 2009.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 70,000 in January after a jobs gain of 37,000 in December. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 22,000 jobs in January after a gain of 37,000 in the previous month.

Initial claims and insured claims were both lower in the mid-January employment survey week compared with mid-December survey week.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 31% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in January, down from 33% in December but still elevated.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's January consumer confidence survey fell by a 3.6 percentage points to 23.9% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" rose by 1.7 percentage point to 20.8%, narrowing the gap between the two measures.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in January after a 0.3% gain in December, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to slow to 3.7% from 3.8%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours.

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