TD Sees Bank of Canada on Hold in Foreseeable Future as Easing Labor Slack Moderates

12:28 PM EST, 02/03/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows that Canada's job market has pumped out nearly 200,000 net new jobs since summer's end, defying expectations, said TD.

However, these gains have been met with some skepticism given weaker signals in other key job surveys -- such as payrolls -- not to mention the broader gross domestic product data, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

To help sort through any noise from signal, the Bank of Canada also tracks a wide range of other job market indicators, including the vacancy rate, job finding rate, separation rate among others, pointed out TD.

The signals from the metrics aren't uniform, but collectively present a more subdued picture of job health relative to the LFS hiring data, stated the bank.

An examination of key job metrics on the BoC's dashboard points to a market that has remained broadly stable, with some indicators suggesting easing labor market slack heading into 2026, added TD.

The assessment complements the bank's view that the BoC will remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

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