BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:50 AM EST, 01/30/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the monthly gross domestic product data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friay, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank noted that the Canadian economy has struggled to gain momentum in recent months as the support from past rate cuts is offset by still-significant trade uncertainty. BMO expects economic growth to be flat in November, following a 0.3% month-over-month contraction in October.

The bank's call is a tenth softer than Statistics Canada's flash estimate, as the data flow since then has been generally soft. Manufacturing sales and wholesale trade volumes were weak, while home sales slipped. On the plus side, hours worked rebounded, supported by the end of the Alberta teachers' strike, while retail sales volumes were higher.

The December flash will be watched closely given that hours worked fell, it added. Barring a notable upside surprise or revision, it looks like the economy will struggle to grow in Q4.

Finally, Ottawa's fiscal monitor for November will also be released on Friday, according to BMO. In the prior month, Ottawa posted a budget deficit of $18.4 billion for the April to October period in FY25/26, versus a $14.5 billion shortfall reported for the same period in FY24/25.

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