TD Says Canada's Trade Future Is Highly Dependent on USMCA Trade Review as Exports Slip in November

09:57 AM EST, 01/29/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's trade deficit widened substantially from $395 million in October to $2.2 billion in November, said TD after Thursday's data.

Exports in November pulled back 2.8% month over month. However, the decline was narrowly based, driven by a 24.4% month-over-month drop in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum metals, and an 11.6% drop in motor vehicles and parts, noted the bank.

Otherwise, eight of 11 product categories registered a gain in October, with a 7.6% month-over-month increase in crude oil exports providing the largest lift.

Goods imports edged lower by 0.1% month-over-month in November, with seven of 11 subsectors booking a decline. Imports of motor vehicles and parts (-4.5% month over month) contributed most to the drop, with energy imports (-10.6% month over month) also denting the headline number. A 6.2% month-over-month increase in consumer goods imports helped offset the impact.

In volume terms, merchandise exports were down 0.9% month over month, while imports increased by 0.9% month over month.

Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the United States widened from $5.2 billion in October to $6.6 billion in November. Exports to non-U.S. markets fell by 4.9% month over month on the month.

Trade data for November continues to highlight the impact that pronounced volatility in precious metals shipments is having on Canada's trade data, stated TD. Smoothing through the noise, Canadian export volumes remain a few percent below their pre-tariff levels.

The recovery in Canada's overall trade picture has been uneven, and businesses can anticipate challenging conditions in the months ahead, added the bank.

Canada's recent strategic partnership with China may alleviate some strain in key sectors like autos and agriculture. However, the future of North American trade will be highly contingent on the outcome of the upcoming review of the USMCA agreement, according to TD.

The U.S. Supreme Court is also set to rule soon on whether the Trump administration's use of IEEPA tariffs is lawful. The outcome remains uncertain, but the decision could have implications for upcoming USMCA negotiations.

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