TSX Closer: Down Today On Profit Taking and With Eyes On Trade Tensions and a Coming BoC Update

04:20 PM EST, 01/26/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower Monday after hitting record intraday highs earlier in the session, with profit taking a likely factor after nine record closes this month, with gold shining, while investors also keeping a close eye on Canada-U.S. trade tensions and await a Bank of Canada update on Wednesday.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day down 51.66 points, or 0.15%, to 33,093.32, having been above the 33,400 level in the morning. Sectors were mixed, with gainers led by the Battery Metals Index, up 4.6%, and decliners led by Health Care, down 1.45%.

Of commodities, gold traded at a fresh record high by midafternoon Monday, sticking above the US$5,000 mark as momentum buying continues and the dollar weakened to a lowest since early July. Gold for February delivery was last seen up US$73.50 to US$5,090.50 per ounce, rising off Friday's record close. Silver was also at a record high, up $13.17 to US$114.50. Gold is now up 12% over the past month and 84% over the last 12 months as investors, exchange-traded funds and central banks all eye the metal as U.S. tariff policies, a weakening dollar and geopolitical risk force a turn to safe-haven assets.

But West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower as a massive winter storm bringing snow and ice storms to the eastern half of the United States slows demand, while supply remains robust. WTI crude oil for March delivery was down $0.16 to US$60.91 per barrel, while March Brent oil was down $0.05 to US$65.81.

On the economics front, Canada's CTV News noted that U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend reverted to calling Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney "governor" and threatening additional tariffs on Canada if it makes a trade deal with China. CTV noted Carney said diversifying trade partners "is a positive thing." He added the upcoming review of CUSMA, or the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, is likely to be "robust" as Trump is a "strong negotiator," and that "some of these [Trump] comments and positionings should be viewed in the broader context of that".

In addition to monitoring trade uncertainties, investors are also awaiting a Bank of Canada rates and policy update on Wednesday. According to a Macquarie economist while the BOC is expected to hold rates steady this week, it is "likely to become more hawkish at some stage".

David Doyle, head of economics, said Macquarie Group's base case is for a hold with the Overnight Rate likely to remain at 2.25%. He added forward guidance is likely to remain neutral and suggest the current policy rate is appropriate to achieve the 2% inflation target. Alongside this, Doyle noted, the Monetary Policy Report will be released with updated forecasts. The October forecast was for real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2026 and core (trim/median) inflation of 2.3%.

Doyle said there is unlikely to be a significant market reaction to the decision. He noted markets are pricing roughly a near 40% chance of a hike by December. Macquarie's forecast remains for one to occur in Q4 2026. "Risks to this could lie to an earlier date with the potential for unemployment to fall more sharply than expected given a near-zero employment growth breakeven," he added.

At some stage ahead, Macquarie expects the BoC to become more hawkish in its rhetoric. However, it does not believe this will occur at this week's meeting. More likely, the bank anticipates this shift will occur around midyear.

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