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US Dollar Falls Early Monday, Focus This Week on FOMC, Possible Government Shutdown

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 01/26/26 08:00 AM EST

08:00 AM EST, 01/26/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Monday as focus turns to the policy setting two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting conclusion Wednesday and the potential for another government shutdown at the end of the week.

The CME's Fed Watch Tool currently shows a 97.2% chance of no change to the current 3.50% to 3.75% target range for the federal funds rate being priced in and a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point reduction to a range of 3.25% to 3.50%.

Monday's schedule starts with the Chicago National Activity index for November at 8:30 am ET, at the same time as durable goods orders data for November. The Dallas Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for January is due to be released at 10:30 am ET and the Atlanta Fed is due to update its gross domestic product Nowcast estimate for Q4 around midday.

Tuesday's highlights include weekly Redbook same-store sales, home price data, and consumer confidence data.

In addition to the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, Wednesday's schedule includes weekly mortgage applications and oil stocks inventory data.

Productivity, trade and jobless claims data are due Thursday, as well as factory orders and international trade data.

Producer price data and the Chicago purchasing managers' index report are due to be released Friday.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:

EUR/USD rose to 1.1854 from 1.1829 at the Friday US close and 1.1739 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Monday's schedule. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Feb. 5.

GBP/USD rose to 1.3659 from 1.3641 at the Friday US close and 1.3523 at the same time Friday morning. There are no UK data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Feb. 5.

USD/JPY fell to 153.9012 from 155.6872 at the Friday US close and 158.1932 at the same time Friday morning on rumors Japanese officials were discussing possible foreign exchange intervention. The Japanese leading index rose less than expected in November, according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for March 18-19.

USD/CAD fell to 1.3688 from 1.3697 at the Friday US close and 1.3770 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Canadian data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, when no change in the target rate is expected.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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