Scotiabank Sees Mexico Central Bank More Likely to Cut Rates in February After Inflation Lower Than Expected

11:24 AM EST, 01/22/2026 (MT Newswires) -- In the first half of January, Mexican headline inflation was revised upward, increasing from 3.69% in December to 3.77%, and coming in below the consensus expectation of 3.87%, said Scotiabank after Thursday's data.

Core inflation rose from 4.33% to 4.47% versus 4.52% consensus, noted the bank. Increases were observed across its components, with goods rising to 4.51% from 4.35%, and services to 4.44% from 4.35%.

Among the items with the largest upward impact were cigarettes and bottled soft drinks, which can be explained by the increase in the excise tax (IEPS) on these products, while air transportation, eggs, and household liquefied petroleum gas helped contain price increases, stated Scotiabank.

Meanwhile, non-core inflation declined from 1.61% to 1.43%, continuing its downtrend over the past four fortnights.

Regarding monetary policy implications, Scotiabank believes this reading strengthens the possibility of a rate cut, although with a divided vote at the central bank's (Banxico) meeting scheduled for Feb. 5.

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