Goldman Bumps Gold Target, Sees $5400 In 2026

Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900, citing strengthening structural demand for the metal. The bank notes the emerging-market central banks' diversification of reserves and sustained private-sector interest as key catalysts.

"The rally has accelerated since 2025 because central banks started competing for limited bullion with private sector investors," analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas wrote in a Thursday note, according to Business Insider.

That competition, they clarify, has altered the starting point for gold prices, making a sustained correction less likely even if financial conditions stabilize.

Persistent Central Bank Demand

Goldman expects emerging-market central banks to remain a key pillar of demand through 2026 as they continue to diversify away from traditional reserve assets, such as the U.S. dollar and euro-denominated bonds. Many policymakers in developing economies have increased gold holdings to hedge against geopolitical risk, sanctions exposure, and long-term concerns over fiscal sustainability in advanced economies.

In recent years, central banks in China, India, Turkey, Poland, and several Middle Eastern and Latin American countries have reported sizeable additions to their gold reserves, often buying steadily even during periods of high prices. Goldman forecasts average central bank purchases of around 60 tons per month in 2026, mainly by emerging markets.

Shining Like It's 1970s

The yellow metal's performance has been nothing but stellar. Spot gold surged 65% in 2025, the best annual gain since 1979, and has continued to climb in 2026. Year-to-date, it's up by more than 11%, touching record highs at $4,888 per ounce. Goldman said this momentum reflects not only official-sector buying but also a broadening of private-sector demand.

According to the bank, investors are accessing gold through a wide range of instruments. Exchange-traded funds have seen renewed inflows, while demand for physical bars and coins has increased among high-net-worth individuals and family offices. At the same time, more sophisticated investors are using call options and other derivatives, adding to price pressure without requiring immediate physical delivery.

Despite a strong bullish trend, supply dynamics remain constrained. Global gold supply grows by only about 1% per year, as most of the metal ever mined remains in circulation and new mine output adds only marginally to total above-ground stocks. Even with prices at record levels, production cannot ramp up quickly due to long project lead times, regulatory hurdles, and geological limits.

Price Watch: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is up 11.93% year-to-date, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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