TSX Closer: Sets Eight Record Close of 2026, Buoyed By Record Precious Metals Prices

04:12 PM EST, 01/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's main stock market on Monday set its eight record close of 2026, with the resources heavy Toronto Stock Exchange buoyed by precious metals prices, and overcoming a mixed response to December inflation data and the release of business and consumer sentiment surveys from the Bank of Canada.

Today the TSX was up 50.41 or 0.15% at 33,090.96, even with sectors mixed too, none of them rising or falling by as much as 1%, and even with some stock pickers on the sidelines given markets in the United States were closed for a holiday. According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet going in to today the TSX month-to-date and year-to-date was up 4.19% or 1,327.79 points or 4.19%.

Of commodities, gold traded at a fresh record high by midafternoon Monday on rising geopolitical risk after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to use the country's military to take control of Greenland over the objections of fellow NATO member Denmark, which controls the island, and its European allies. Gold for February delivery was up $88.70 to US$4,684.10 per ounce, topping the prior record close of US$4,635.70 per ounce set on Jan. 14. Meanwhile, silver also rose US$6.02 to a record US$94.56 per ounce.

Meanwhile, oil prices were steady in electronic U.S. holiday trade as the Iranian government reasserted control over that nation following widespread protests over a wakening economy there, easing concerns over a supply threat from the OPEC producer, while traders move away from risk assets on the growing dispute between the United States and Europe over Greenland. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for February delivery was last seen unchanged at US$59.44 in electronic trade with U.S. markets closed, while March Brent oil was down $0.02 to US$64.11.

On the economic front, inflation surprised the consensus on the upside in December with an annual price lift of 2.4% (versus 2.2% expected) despite the drop in gasoline prices (-7.1%). Most market watchers acknowledged upward pressure was inevitable due to the exemption from the goods and services tax (GST) from December 2024 to February 2025 on several products, including restaurants, toys, clothing, etc. Excluding the effect of indirect taxes, prices were actually slowing down on an annual basis, falling from 2.8% to 2.5%.

Derek Holt, Vice-President & Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said markets "largely shook off" the CPI with "an eye on bigger concerns". In summary Hold added: "Traditional core was hot, trimmed mean and weighted median were not."

According to Holt, the Bank of Canada will ignore the readings, while markets paid little heed. He said that's, perhaps, for four reasons. "One is that the year-over-year rate picked up by more than expected. Second is that traditional core CPI sharply accelerated. Three is that the smoothed Q4 figures for headline and core gauges were a little firmer than the BoC expected way back in the now partly stale October MPR. Fourth is that inflation's breadth increased again."

Holt added: "Against these points, however, is that the higher frequency measures for trimmed mean and weighted median 'core' measures of inflation continued to decelerate."

Meanwhile, Holt said he doesn't pay much attention to the BoC business and consumer survey surveys, but he did note today's releases showed little change in the measures of inflation expectations. Holt added: "Businesses expect more firings, but the 100 firms they consult didn't anticipate the hiring surge over the past four months. Further, they're [the surveys] so stale, that a private survey firm would be out of business if they did likewise. Imagine an election survey, two months after the election."

Over at National Bank, Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie referred to the BoC's Business Outlook Survey (BOS), as "arguably the most important 'soft' data in Canada". They noted the latest survey, conducted between November 6 and 26, "continues to raise concerns even as some signs of improving business confidence start to present themselves". The National Bank duo said they are "not overly concerned" about inflation at its current level, and they don't see meaningful risk it will surge higher. Still, they added, the BOS continues to allude to cost pressures and marginally elevated inflation expectations:

Released at the same time as the BOS, the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) "also paints a downbeat picture", noted the National Bank pair. They cited: "Following a tepid recovery in Q3, consumer confidence retreated at the end of 2025. The labour market outlook remained soft, as the perceived likelihood of losing a job stepped up. Meantime, concerns related to financial health grew, as rising debt servicing costs and still elevated inflation expectations weighed on the consumption outlook. Opinions were mixed about whether the worst of financial impacts from trade conflicts have already presented themselves."

Schleich and Currie said this report will have no impact on the coming BoC decision as the central

bank has already firmly established itself on the sidelines. However, they added, some of the trends in this report bear monitoring. "On one hand, we'll be assessing if improving sentiment and a stronger sales outlook will translate into faster GDP growth. On the other hand, the reported layoff intentions are concerning and raises the risk of the recent labour market recovery stopping in its tracks. Still lingering cost pressures will also be key to watch. For now, there's nothing that will have policymakers rushing to tighten or loosen monetary policy for the foreseeable future. While we continue to see a path to rate hikes beginning in the fourth quarter, we'll readily concede that risks to this call are skewed towards tightening being pushed into 2027 rather than being pulled earlier this year."

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