BMO on The Day, Week Ahead in Canada

07:47 AM EST, 01/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- It's a data-filled week for Canada after the recent run of indicators left much to be desired, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET, consumer price index inflation looks to fall month-over-month, thanks in part to a plunge in gasoline prices in December, noted the bank. BMO pointed out that December is usually a seasonally soft month for prices, and 2025 was no different, although airfares surged on holiday-driven demand.

Even so, the overall inflation rate will likely accelerate a tenth to 2.3% year over year, as last year's GST/HST holiday provides a challenging base effect, added BMO. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation look to remain at 2.8% year over year, while CPI excluding food and energy could tick up to 2.5% year over year.

At 10:30 a.m ET on Monday, the BoC will release its Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for Q4. While global trade uncertainty had stepped back from its peak earlier in the year, the United States-Canada relationship remained in flux as trade talks were abruptly cancelled despite reports that negotiators had been close to finalizing some relief on sectoral tariffs, stated the bank. Overall, BMO estimates the BOS indicator to extend its three-year streak in negative territory, consistent with a slowdown in economic growth to end the year.

At the same time, the BoC will release its Consumer Expectations Survey (CSCE). Labor market sentiment looks to remain muted, although stalled population growth should support an improvement through 2026. The bank will be watching for any movement on inflation expectations after the five-year-ahead outlook jumped to its highest since 2022 in the previous report.

Later in the week, investors will get other price indicators (producer prices on Wednesday; new home prices on Thursday). Retail sales on Friday are expected to rebound 1% month over month in November, although higher prices suggest volumes will come in cooler than the headline. The bank will be watching the December flash estimates for retail and for manufacturing sales, to be released at the same time.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will give a speech on Tuesday at Davos, while U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to give one on Wednesday.

The US dollar (USD) index has slipped 0.2% while the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is starting the week at $1.389 (just under 72 cents US), accoridng to BMO.

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