IMF Revises 2026 World Growth Estimate Higher Vs. October Report

04:30 AM EST, 01/19/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The International Monetary Fund revised its estimate for 2026 global growth higher in its most recent World Economic Outlook released on Monday, now matching the pace seen in 2024 and 2025.

Most regions saw upward adjustments for 2026 but few changes to forecasts for 2027

"This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces," the IMF said. "Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence, more so in North America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector."

However, risks are still tilted to the downside, the IMF said, particularly related to possible declines in investment, heightened trade tensions, and increased political tensions both domestically and internationally.

World output is now expected to rise by 3.3% in 2026, matching the annual gains in 2024 and 2025, an upward adjustment from a 3.1% estimate in the October version of the WEO. Growth is expected to slow modestly to an unrevised 3.2% in 2027.

For the US, the IMF now sees a 2.4% gain in 2026 after a 2.1% increase in 2025, an upward adjustment from the 2.1% growth estimate for 2026 in October. A deceleration to 2% growth is expected for 2027, a downward adjustment from the 2.1% gain previously estimated.

The Canadian economy is expected to expand by 1.6% in 2026, the same as in 2025, an upward adjustment from a 1.5% gain previously estimated for 2026. Growth is seen accelerating to 1.9% in 2027, unrevised from the October WEO.

Euro area growth is now seen at 1.3% in 2026 after a 1.4% gain in 2025. The new estimate represents an upward revision from a 1.2% gain forecasted in October. Growth is expected to accelerate to 1.4% in 2027, unrevised from the October estimate.

UK economic activity is now expected to grow by 1.3% in 2026, unrevised from the previous estimate and following a 1.4% increase in 2025. The UK economy is expected to grow by an unrevised 1.5% in 2027.

The Japanese economy is expected to expand by 0.7% in 2026, an upward adjustment from the 0.6% gain estimated in October and following a 1.1% increase in 2025. The IMF sees Japanese growth slowing to an unrevised 0.6% in 2027.

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