CIBC On the Week Ahead In Canada Economics

02:23 PM EST, 01/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- According to Avery Shenfeld, in his 'Week Ahead' market call, a 0.4% drop on Monday in the CPI for December (in line with consensus) would represent a trend-like 0.2% rise in seasonally adjusted terms, and leave the 12-month rate at 2.2%. He said that's "quite favourable" given that there's an upward bias in the 12-month figure because the prior December benefited from a short lived sales tax holiday on items like restaurant meals. Shenfeld noted Monday's core inflation readings will remain a bit further above the 2% target -- he sees in line with consensus growth of 2.7% year over year in both core-median and trim -- but CIBC expects relief in the months ahead from the rent component, alongside the impacts of economic slack.

Looking ahead to the release of November retail trade data next Friday, Shenfeld said what will look like a strong bounce for that month could still see volumes fail to recover from two months of declines, part of what looks to be a "very tepid" Q4 economic growth rate.

Also on the CIBC calendar for next week are the release on Monday of both the Q4 Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. December Industrial Prod. Prices and Raw Materials data for December is slated to come out Wednesday.

There will be an an auction of $3 billion in 30-YR CANADAS on Wednesday and an auction of $6 billion in 2-YR CANADAS on Thursday.

Price: 129.06, Change: +1.07, Percent Change: +0.83

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