MUFG Still Sees Weaker Sterling This Year Despite Stronger November GDP

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 01/15/26 06:24 AM EST

06:24 AM EST, 01/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- MUFG said the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by a further 50bps this year.

Yields in the United Kingdom are still under downward pressure at the start of this year both at the short and long end of the curve, wrote the bank in a note to clients. The 10-year Gilt yield has fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2024.

It fits with MUFG's view for slowing inflation in the United Kingdom and further BoE rate cuts this year, which the bank expects to result in a weaker sterling (GBP) against the euro (EUR). Sterling has derived some support early Thursday though from the release of the latest monthly U.K. gross domestic product for November, which revealed stronger growth of 0.3% month over month despite budget uncertainty.

Even if U.K. growth is flat in December, it would leave GDP on track to expand by 0.2% in Q4, stated MUFG. At the last BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the BoE staff were expecting flat growth in Q4.

While the upside growth surprise is a welcome development, it doesn't significantly alter MUFG's expectations for further BoE cuts and a weaker sterling this year.

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