Deutsche Bank Previews This Week's U.K. GDP Data

10:59 AM EST, 01/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The United Kingdom is scheduled to publish the November gross domestic product Thursday, said Deutsche Bank.

After a disappointing start to Q4, the bank expects some rebound in November. Some catch-up in activity, it thinks, is likely. Activity trackers improved in November, as budget uncertainty diminished.

The bank will also be looking for any upward revisions to either the September or October GDP prints.

Deutsche Bank estimates November GDP to have expanded -- although marginally. The bank's models point to a 0.1% month-over-month expansion.

Its backcast also points to some meaningful chance of upward revisions to September/October GDP -- which came in unexpectedly weaker than Deutsche Bank's modelld estimates.

Looking ahead, the bank forecasts GDP to rebound strongly in Q1 2026. Survey data is already improving as the dust on the Budget settles. There are tentative signs that the labor market may be stabilizing.

Deutsche Bank predicts households to spend a little more to start the year, and investment to remain on an uptrend -- for both the public and private sectors. Base effects, however, will mean that GDP growth this year will be a little lower than in 2025 (1.1%), but it sees quarterly growth tracking at a "healthy" 0.35% quarter over quarter.

There are more downside risks to the bank's growth projection due to the vulnerabilities in the labor market.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.