BMO Notes A "Mixed" Bag for Canadian Jobs in 2025

09:37 AM EST, 01/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's December Labour Force Survey (LFS) posted a net 8,000 gain in jobs following six months of double-digit swings, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The softer increase in jobs was coupled with an uptick in labor force participation, driving the jobless rate three tenths higher to 6.8%.

Looking through the monthly volatility, the labor market had a 'so-so' year, noted the bank. Employment rose about 1% year over year, about half the pace of population growth -- at least according to the LFS as the official yearly population figures won't be published for a couple of more months.

The jobless rate ticked up only a tenth from a year ago. That's impressive given the many trade headwinds that shaped the economy over the past year, stated BMO.

Still, it's clear that the United States tariffs are leaving a mark, pointed out the bank: less-exposed regions, like Alberta and Manitoba, posted decent performance.

Ontario was one of the weaker spots, with the jobless rate rising to 7.9% by December -- the highest in the country after Newfoundland & Labrador -- partially on past population growth.

Looking ahead to 2026, tighter immigration limits should continue to dampen the unemployment rate, according to BMO. Any certainty on the trade front would spark economic activity and, as such, labor demand.

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