TREASURIES-Bond yields ease off earlier highs as market gauges Fed risk

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 01/12/26 02:55 PM EST

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DOJ sends subpoenas to Fed over building project

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Inflation data due later this week

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3-year, 10-year auctions set for Monday

(Updates to afternoon US trading)

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Monday, retreating from earlier highs as markets weighed the revelation by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank had been threatened with a criminal indictment over a building renovation project.

Powell said late Sunday the Fed had received subpoenas from the Justice Department last week pertaining to remarks he made to Congress ?last summer over cost overruns for a $2.5 billion building renovation project at the Fed's headquarters complex in Washington, rekindling concerns about the Fed's independence and the credibility of U.S. assets. The move was the latest in ?a series of actions by U.S. President Donald Trump aimed at pressuring Powell, who is scheduled to step down from his post in May, and ?the central bank into lowering interest rates. Many investors feel such pressure could undermine the Fed's independence, seen as ?a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system ?and economic policy foundation.

"Anytime you have a new angle on something, the market reads it, trades on it a little bit, it has to digest it, and then it realizes this is just ?new news that's consistent with prior events that have come out," said Jim Barnes, ?director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

"It feels as if the Fed is a tough institution to break, and so this is going to keep going on, though it's not going to go away, the persistencies will probably be ?there and the market is just going to have to take it ?in stride." The yield on ?the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note edged up 0.6 basis point to 4.177% after climbing to 4.207% on the session.

The 30-year bond yield advanced 0.9 basis point to 4.828% after declining 4.5 basis points last week, its biggest drop since October.

Barnes said yields have been trading ?in a somewhat tight range over the past four months, holding near the top end of that range as economic data has indicated the Fed does not need to rush into additional rate cuts, which has exerted some upward pressure recently.

Employment data on Friday showed the U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected in December, but was not weak enough to alter market expectations for just two rate cuts from the Fed this year. Markets are awaiting inflation readings in the form of the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) this week to gauge the potential path of interest rates from the Fed. Those expectations showed ?little reaction to ?the subpoenas, with CME's FedWatch Tool showing a 26.1% chance of a March rate cut, down from 27.6% in the prior session. The two-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, shed 0.1 basis point to 3.539%.

A closely watched ?part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 63.6 basis points. An auction of $58 billion in three-year notes and $39 billion in 10-year notes was seen as solid by analysts. Demand for the 3-year was 2.65 times the notes on sale, slightly higher than average, while the 10-year saw demand of 2.55 times, roughly average.

More supply will come to the market on Tuesday when an additional $22 billion in 30-year bonds will be auctioned. Trump's actions come roughly two weeks before his effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook will be argued before the Supreme Court. Market participants are also awaiting ?the Court's decision on the legality of Trump's sweeping tariff announcements, which could come this week.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams is scheduled to speak later on Monday.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.357% after closing at 2.335% on Friday, its highest in a month.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.289%, indicating the market sees inflation ?averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade. (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak, additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Peter Graff, Susan Fenton and Deepa Babington)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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