December US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 70,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Falling to 4.5%

03:11 PM EST, 01/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 70,000 in December after a 64,000-jobs gain in November, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The December employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday.

Layoffs intentions fell in December from November, hitting their lowest point since July 2024, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, with the services and food sectors adding the most to the overall total.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 75,000 in December after a jobs gain of 69,000 in November. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 41,000 jobs in December after a decline of 29,000 in the previous month.

Federal government payrolls are likely to rebound in December after falling in October and November due to the government shutdown.

Initial claims were but slightly in the mid-December employment survey week compared with the mid-November survey week, but insured claims were lower.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 33% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in December, the same as in November.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's December consumer confidence survey fell by a 1.5 percentage points to 26.7% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" rose by 0.7 percentage point to 20.8%, narrowing the gap between the two measures.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in December after a 0.1% gain in November, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to accelerate to 3.6% from 3.5%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.3 hours.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5% in December from 4.6% in November. As usual, annual revisions to the household survey, which includes the unemployment rate, will be incorporated into the December data.

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