December US Median Inflation Expectations Rose for Short Term, Steady for the Medium Term, According to NY Fed Survey

11:10 AM EST, 01/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth accelerated to a 3.4% gain in December from a 3.2% gain in the previous month, according to a survey released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Thursday.

The median inflation expectations remained at a 3.0% gain for both the three-year period and for five years ahead.

The median inflation uncertainty rose to 3.5% from 3.3% in the one-year horizon and rose to 3.6% from 3.3% for the three-year outlook.

Median home price change expectations remained at 3.0% while home price uncertainty rose to a 4.0% increase from a 3.9% increase in the previous month.

The median one-year expectations commodity prices growth fell for gas, food, medical care, college education and rent and held steady for gold.

The earnings growth outlook slowed modestly in December, while expectations of losing a job went up. Expectations of leaving a job declined in the month while expectations of finding another job declined sharply.

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