CIBC Says Canada's Trade Data Won't Improve Until CUSMA Trade Talks Conclude

08:56 AM EST, 01/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's trade balance moved back into deficit in October, although the $600 million shortfall was not as bad as the $1.5 billion deficit expected by the consensus, said CIBC after Thursday's release of the international merchandise trade data.

A 3.4% month-over-month rebound in imports on increases in eight of 11 categories, was behind that move, while exports were up by 2.1%, driven by higher unwrought gold shipments, noted the bank.

In volume terms, imports increased by 2.6% month over month and exports decreased by 0.4%, suggesting that net trade will be a negative growth contributor in Q4, following a strong Q3 contribution, said CIBC.

Canadian exporters remain challenged by United States tariffs and uncertainty around CUSMA trade deal renegotiations, and likely won't see a sustained improvement in activity until that uncertainty fades further into 2026, according to the bank.

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