RBC Expects Canada's Oct Trade Balance to Return to Deficit

01:58 PM EST, 01/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Statistics Canada has flagged Jan. 8 as the release date for the October trade report, but this date is still preliminary given residual impacts from the earlier U.S. government shutdown, notes RBC in its Forward Guidance note released this Friday.

RBC expects the October trade balance to move back to deficit, shifting from a $153 million surplus to roughly $283 million deficit, as export growth declines slightly while import growth edged higher."

Lower oil prices, down 5.4% in October, likely pushed energy trade balance down. Motor vehicle shipments also reversed (-2%), following the jump in September, RBC said.

In the U.S., RBC added, employment growth is expected to remain "slightly positive" in December after a 64,000 gain in November. It noted employment growth has slowed to a crawl since tariffs escalated with an average 17,000 per-month increase since April and the heavily exposed manufacturing sector posting job losses for seven straight months. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September (the October unemployment rate could not be calculated due to the government shutdown that month). That was the highest unemployment rate in more than four years, although current market consensus is looking for a tick lower to 4.5% in December, RBC noted.

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