BMO Says Canada's Q4 GDP Will Need "Very Strong" November, December Reading to Stay Positive

06:05 AM EST, 12/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian economy contracted 0.3% in October after a run of soft data in the month, said Bank of Montreal (BMO) after last week's gross domestic product data.

Manufacturing output was down 1.5% month over month across a wide range of industries -- including those with high trade exposure to the United States, noted the bank. Mining, oil & natural gas contracted 0.6%, while both wholesale and retail trade down.

Suffice it to say, it wasn't a month to write home about for the Canadian economy, stated BMO. At the same time, the Alberta teachers' strike carved into hours worked, and pulled

down education output by 1.8% in the month.

From a year ago, real output is now up just 0.4%, the slowest clip since the COVID-19 pandemic, pointed out the bank. Over the last three months, growth has swung negative again.

Looking through Q4, it's going to take a "very strong" November and December combo to keep growth in positive territory, according to BMO.

Statistics Canada noted last week that the early read on November was for a modest 0.1% month-over-month rebound.

Stay tuned, but it looks like the "choppy" year for Canadian growth in Q4, added the bank.

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