Scotia's Derek Holt Sees a Drop on Tuesday In October GDP, "With Caveats", But a Rebound in November Data

06:42 AM EST, 12/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada updates GDP for October with flash guidance for November on Tuesday, Dec. 23, noted Derek Holt, Vice-President & Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank

Holt said a drop of about -0.2% m/m is expected for October, "with caveats". One of those caveats is that labour strikes took down hours worked by 0.2% m/m SA in each of September and October across employers like Canada Post and Alberta's education sector and there may have been spillover effects for others. Since GDP is hours times labour productivity, a drop in hours put GDP behind the eight ball, he added.

Meanwhile, Holt said November GDP could post a rebound. He noted that we know readings like hours worked (+0.4%) surged forward partly as the strikes ended. And in general, job growth has been very strong with about 187k added in just the past three months. Also, measures like housing starts (+9.4% m/m SA) and retail sales (+1.2%) posted solid gains that could spillover into value-added GDP. A simple regression model suggests November GDP could expand by two or three tenths, Holt added.

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