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CIBC on the Week Ahead

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 01:16 PM EST

01:16 PM EST, 12/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- After an upside surprise in Q3 GDP tied to an export recovery, CIBC's Avery Shenfeld on Friday said Q4 looks to be off to a "weak start", with October GDP on Tuesday expected to post a decline. CIBC is forecasting a drop of 0.3%, in line with consensus, and compared to prior rise of 0.2%.

But Shenfeld noted the early news on November, including a rebound in the flash estimate for retailing, looks "a bit brighter", which is what one might expect if the recent improvement in the employment figures is an accurate signal.

Shenfeld said the summary of the deliberations at the Bank of Canada's last meeting, also due Tuesday, will show that there was "little if any consideration given to an interest rate move", with a "fairly balanced set of concerns" over downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation.

(Also on the calendar for next week are the release of November Industrial Product Price and Raw Materials data on Monday. Note, markets are closed Thursday for Christmas Day and on Friday for Boxing Day.)

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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