Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for Dec. 16

02:38 PM EST, 12/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The November employment report was mixed, with payrolls growth stronger than expected but following a sharp October drop, the unemployment rate higher, and hourly earnings growth slower than expected.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after a 105,000 decline in October and a 108,000 gain in September. Private payrolls rose by 69,000, above expectations and following a 52,000 gain in October.

Government payrolls fell by an additional 5,000 jobs in November after a 157,000-job decline in October during the government shutdown. A rebound is likely in December.

Health care payrolls rose by 46,000, while construction jobs rose by 28,000 and retail sector jobs rose by 6,200, but there were job declines for manufacturing and leisure and hospitality jobs.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4% in September, with the details showing a larger rise in the number of unemployed than the number of employed and a slight uptick in the labor force participation rate. October household survey data are not available.

Average hourly earnings were up 0.1% in November, slower than a 0.4% increase in October and pulling down the year-over-year rate to 3.5% from 3.7%.

The New York Federal Reserve's monthly business leaders index, a measure of services conditions, rose to minus 20 in December from minus 21.7 in November, still indicating significant contraction in the sector. Other services data will be released over the coming weeks.

Redbook reported that US same-store retail sales last week were up 6.2% from a year earlier, faster than the 5.7% gain in the prior week, as holiday sales picked up, particularly online and for gift cards.

The Q3 GDPnow estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.5% gain, down from the previous estimate of 3.6% on Thursday. The next estimate is scheduled to be released on Dec. 23, the first for Q4.

The flash manufacturing reading from S&P Global fell to 51.8 in December from 52.2 in November after regional data from the New York Federal Reserve Bank turned sharply negative.

The ISM's national manufacturing reading will be released on Jan. 5.

The flash services reading from S&P Global fell to 52.9 in December from 54.1 in November, suggesting slower growth. The ISM's services reading is scheduled for release on Jan. 7.

Retail sales held steady in October but were up 0.4% excluding a 1.6% drop in auto sales.

A 0.8% decline in gasoline station sales, a 0.9% drop in building material sales and a 0.4% drop in food services and drinking places sales were downside factors.

Control group retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles, gas, building materials, and food services, rose by 0.9% after a 0.1% drop in September, lifted by gains in furniture, clothing, and sporting goods and at department stores and nonstore retailers.

Business inventories rose by 0.2% in September, above expectations and following a flat reading in August. Business sales were flat, with a flat reading at the factory level, a drop at the wholesale level, and a small gain at the retail level.

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