Rosenberg Research Says Latest Inflation Data Gives Bank of Canada Cover To Shift Back To An Easing Stance If Needed

10:49 AM EST, 12/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada received some comforting news on Monday with the as expected 0.1% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted November consumer price index print, while the headline inflation rate did come in a tad below market expectations, staying at 2.2% year over year instead of inching up to 2.3% as the consensus had penciled in, noted Rosenberg Research.

"Encouragingly", it said, both the year-over-year trends in the core median -- at 2.8% from 3.0% in October -- and trimmed mean metrics, came in one-tenth of a point below expected.

Rosenberg Research did note the lingering challenges in the residential real estate market were on full display as well, with shelter costs struggling to post a 0.1% month-over-month increase for the third time in four months.

But at the same time, housing operations and furnishings saw their CPI impact ease to less than 0.1% month over month, the weakest reading since last March. Rosenberg Research noted CPI rents have softened to 4.7% year over year, and while still elevated, that is a huge moderation from 7.7% a year ago, while Canada's equivalent of homeowners' replacement cost is deflating at a 1.6% year-over-year pace.

These inflation numbers, if sustained -- and they seem to be a pattern and not a blip -- will surely give the Canadian central bank cover to shift back to an easing stance if the economy begins to stumble again, Rosenberg said.

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