Deutsche Bank Says Chile's Central Bank Should Hold Rates Tuesday, But Notes Possibility of Cut

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 12/16/25 10:18 AM EST

10:18 AM EST, 12/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Chile's central bank (BCCh) will announce its policy decision at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

According to Deutsche Bank, the persistence of core inflation and the behavior of services inflation prescribe continued caution, while the performance of activity and the labor market affords the BCCh the space to avoid rushing the next cut.

Deutsche Bank expects the BCCh to revise its estimate of the neutral policy rate range towards the top half of the current 3.5% to 4.5% interval.

As a consequence, the bank thinks that it would be more prudent for the BCCh to leave the policy rate steady at 4.75% on Tuesday and resume policy normalization once the expected decline of inflation in early 2026 materializes and the updated structural parameters provide more clarity on the remaining space to complete the normalization process.

Nevertheless, Deutsche Bank recognizes the risks that the BCCh opts to validate the market's expectation of a 25bps reduction. Whether the BCCh determines to deliver the next cut today or in Q1 2026, Deutsche Bank continues to pencil in a terminal rate of 4.25%.

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