TSX Closer: Down For a Second Straight Day Since Thursday's Record Finish

04:21 PM EST, 12/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower again on Monday, falling for a second day from Thursday's record high on weak commodity prices while investors found little inspiration in November CPI data that came in softer than expected, even as underlying pressures persist, and November home sales that remained flat.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 43.95 points, or 0.1%, to 31,483.44, adding to the 130-plus points lost Friday. In keeping with the trend for the day, sectors were mixed, although none of the gainers were up by more than 0.5%, while the Battery Metals Index fell 1.5% and Energy was down 1.4%.

In stock news, S&P Global said Monday afternoon that freight railroad services provider Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) has strengthened its competitive position due to solid operating results and the integration of Kansas City Southern, concurrently improving credit measures. As a result, S&P has revised its outlook on CPKC to positive from stable. At the same time, S&P affirmed all its ratings on CPKC and related subsidiaries, including its 'BBB+' issuer credit rating on the company. It said: "The positive outlook reflects our expectation for CPKC to generate mid-single-digit percent annual EBITDA growth, with a financial policy that supports adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt above 23%, adjusted debt to EBITDA of about 3x, and adjusted free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt above 10%. Still, CP closed down about 0.9% in Canadian trade.

In economic news, National Bank noted today's inflation print was "generally more moderate than consensus expectations", with the overall index posting annual growth of 2.2%, while the median consensus among economists was 2.3%. National Bank said this does not mean that monthly price growth was weak, as the 0.24% increase in the index (seasonally adjusted) compared to October represents an annualized rate of 2.9%. It noted specific components contributed to this price surge, notably food, clothing, and healthcare spending. National Bank added the good news in the report is that these increases are not widespread, as evidenced by core inflation measures, which recorded average annualized monthly increases of 1.6%. But, it noted, this moderation follows sharp increases in previous months.

Over three months, National Bank noted, the average inflation rate for core inflation measures stands at 2.5%, a level that continues to cause discomfort for the Bank of Canada, which is targeting 2%. National said the same observation applies when it analyzes the number of components that have grown at a rate above 2% in the last three months, which stands at 34, compared to an average of 27 from 1999 to 2019.

"All in all," National Bank said, "the November CPI report is unlikely to change the central bank's view that the policy rate is at an appropriate level. It considers this to be the level necessary for inflation to return to target in the long term, and progress has been made in this direction for core inflation measures. This should reassure the bank that despite a so far surprisingly resilient economy, there is no need to consider raising interest rates in the short term, especially since tariff uncertainty continues to hold back the Canadian economy."

In other economic news, National Bank noted home sales remained "relatively flat", with a drop of 0.6% from October to November at the national level following a marginal 0.9% gain the previous month. On a regional basis, transactions were down in seven of the 10 provinces in November, namely in Nova Scotia, down 13.0%) P.E.I., down 5.6%, Newfoundland, down 2.7%, New Brunswick, down 2.6%, Quebec, down 2.5%, Ontario, down 1.5%, and Manitoba, down 0.7%. On the other hand, home sales increased 2.6% in B.C., up by 2.7% in Alberta and up by 3.4% in Saskatchewan. "After picking up steam in the spring," said National Bank, "the number of sales in the real estate market has remained essentially stable since July, despite the Bank of Canada's policy rate cuts in the fall. Furthermore, sales remain below their historical average and 7.6% below their most recent peak in November 2024, as trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the market. However, we remain optimistic about the residential market in the coming months, as cumulative decreases in the policy rate and improvements in the labour market should help support transaction levels."

Of commodities, gold had edged higher by late afternoon Monday, supported by last week's cut to U.S. interest rates, a weaker dollar and high physical demand. Gold for February delivery was up $3.00 to US$4,331.3 0 per ounce, after earlier touching US$4,384.30, above the record close of US$4,359.40 set on Oct. 20.

But West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to the lowest in nearly five years as traders continue to see rising supply more than offsetting high geopolitical rise. WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down US$0.62 to settle at US$55.82 per barrel, the lowest since February 2021, while February Brent oil was last seen down US$0.74 to US$60.38.

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