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November US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 50,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Rising From September

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 12/15/25 02:45 PM EST

02:45 PM EST, 12/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 50,000 in November after a 119,000-jobs gain in September, the most recent month that data was available for, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The November employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Tuesday and will include October establishment survey data, but not household survey data for October that was not able to be calculated.

Layoffs intentions slowed in November from October, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, with the telecommunications and technology sectors adding the most to the overall total.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 40,000 in November after a jobs gain of 97,000 in September. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls fell by 32,000 jobs in November.

Initial and insured claims were both lower in the mid-November employment survey week than in the mid-October survey week.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 33% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in November, up from 32%.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's November consumer confidence survey fell by a full percentage point to 27.6% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" fell by 0.4 percentage point to 17.9%.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in November after a 0.2% gain in September, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to slow to 3.6% from 3.8%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in November from 4.4% in September. Due to the way the household survey is prepared, it is not possible for the BLS to calculate data for October, so it will not be reported.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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