TD Sees Canada's Home Sales Rising In 2026 Despite November Slip

10:51 AM EST, 12/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian existing home sales declined 0.6% month over month in November, partially reversing October's 1% month-over-month gain, said TD after Monday's data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Ontario (sales down 1.5% month over month) and Quebec (2% month-over-month lower), drove the national decline, noted the bank. Quebec's drop marked a pullback from a robust October, while sales have fallen for three straight months in Ontario.

Partially offsetting November's national monthly decline were gains in British Columbia, Albert, and Saskatchewan -- all up 3% month over month. Sales were lower elsewhere in the country.

Canadian new listings dropped 1.6% month over month in November. With sales declining less than new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened up a touch. However, at 52.7%, the ratio remained below its long-term average, pointing to below-average Canadian average home price growth in the coming months.

Average home prices edged 0.3% lower month-over-month in November. Weakness was relatively broad-based, with prices down or flat in six of 10 provinces, headlined by drops in Manitoba (2% month over month), Alberta and Quebec (both down 1% month over month). Prices declined by about 0.5% month over month in B.C. and Ontario.

Meanwhile, they were up about 1.5% month over month, on average, in the Atlantic and Saskatchewan.

The MLS home price index, a more like-for-like measure, fell by 0.4% month over month and was down 3.7% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units dropped 0.5% month over month, while condo prices dipped 0.1%, with the pace of declines in this structure type generally moderating since June.

After rebounding from early-year woes in the spring and most of the summer, Canadian home sales growth has cooled. November was a soft month for resale housing, with Canadian sales and prices both down, pointed out TD. However, November's sales dip was small and sales have climbed for six of the past eight months.

As such, the bank isn't throwing in the towel yet on its view that Canadian sales will grind higher through next year, supported by pent-up demand in B.C. and Ontario, and some improvement in job markets in 2026.

Canadian average home price growth was quite muted in November, and TD thinks it will continue to grow at a sub-trend pace in the coming quarters, weighed down by loose supply/demand balances in B.C. and Ontario.

In contrast, tighter markets should fuel stronger price gains elsewhere in Canada, added the bank. Indeed, Quebec looks like a prime candidate for price outperformance in 2026 -- despite November's soft showing -- with supply/demand conditions strongly in favor of sellers heading into 2026.

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