CIBC Sees Bank of Canada On Hold Through 2026 After Release of November CPI

10:27 AM EST, 12/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC expects headline inflation will see some volatility in the months ahead, thanks to base effects from last year's GST/HST holiday, but it also expects core measures excluding tax changes to continue easing following the release of "generally softer measures of core inflation" Monday.

"At present, though," CIBC said, "core inflation is still too high to allow further interest rate cuts, although not strong enough to justify recent market pricing for hikes before the end of 2026. We continue to forecast that the Bank of Canada will hold its overnight rate steady at the current level throughout next year."

CIBC -- which noted Canadian inflation held steady in November, as the push of stronger food/gasoline prices was offset by the pull of "generally softer measures of core inflation" -- said bond yields and the Canadian dollar were both marginally lower after the latest CPI release, as investors slightly pushed back expectations for future BoC interest rate hikes.

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