BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:27 AM EST, 12/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian existing home sales fell 0.6% month over month in November, or 10.7% year over year, and remain little changed since the summer, said Bank of Montreal after Monday's release of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data.

New listings declined 1.6%, raising the sales-to-new listings rate to 52.7%, indicating generally balanced market conditions, noted the bank. However, performance varies by location.

Benchmark prices eased 0.4% month over month and are down 3.7% year-over-year nationwide, with much of Ontario facing lower prices, but the rest of the country was either up or little changed on the month. With mortgage rates unlikely to fall meaningfully further, a combination of price declines and income gains in Ontario is required to pull affordability into a range that can sustain a durable recovery.

Monday's key report is the Canadian consumer price index for November at 8:30 a.m. ET, stated BMO. Lower gasoline prices should hold the headline index to a slight 0.1% month-over-month advance, though the yearly rate could edge up to 2.3%. The Median and Trim core metrics are expected to also rise modestly by 0.1% month over month to 0.2%, trimming their yearly rates each to 2.8%.

However, this will only reinforce the central bank's view that underlying inflation remains stuck about half a percentage point above the target. That's one reason it signaled a potential end to the easing cycle last week, added BMO.

Also out on Monday, Canada's housing starts at 8:15 a.m. ET look to rebound 12% to 260,000 annualized in November. At 8:30 a.m. ET, manufacturers' shipments are expected to decrease about 1% month over month in October, retracing a third of the prior month's surprisingly large gain, according to the bank.

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