Canada's Inflation Likely Holds Steady in November, Says RBC

07:04 AM EST, 12/15/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release consumer price index data for November at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, said RBC.

Canada's inflation is expected to have held steady in November, with growth in the headline CPI remaining at 2.2% year over year, unchanged from October after slowing from 2.4% in September, noted the bank. Gasoline prices rose moderately in November, but were still about 8% below a year ago, thanks to the end of consumer carbon surcharges in April. That leaves energy inflation tracking well below zero.

Food prices, on the other hand, likely continued to grow faster year-over-year, at above 3%, consistent with rising agricultural commodity prices over the first half of 2025, stated RBC.

Excluding food and energy, the bank looks for inflation to have held steady at 2.7% year over year. Annual growth in the Bank of Canada's core measures -- CPI trim and CPI median -- is likely to tick lower but will stay close to the upper end of the 1% to 3% target range for inflation.

The bank continues to expect no additional BoC rate cuts in the year ahead, with underlying inflation persistently above target and economic conditions improving.

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