National Bank On What It Will Be Watching For In Economics Next Week

03:27 PM EST, 12/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- In Canada, the main event will be the publication Monday of the Consumer Price Index for November.

According to National Bank, the rise in gasoline prices could translate into a 0.1% increase in headline inflation during the month (not seasonally adjusted). If it is right, the annual rate could move up by

one-tenth of a percentage point to 2.3%. Looking at Bank of Canada's core measures, National Bank expects the CPI-med to remain stable at 2.9% on an annual basis, and the CPI-trim to ease from 3.0% to 2.9%.

The October retail sales report next Friday will also be closely watched. National Bank said judging by earlier auto sales data, which showed stagnation during the month, spending at car dealerships is unlikely to have had much impact on the headline figure. Meanwhile, it added, sales of building materials may have benefited from a real estate market rebound, while lower fuel prices may have hurt sales at gasoline stations. Overall, sales, including and excluding automobiles, may have remained roughly stable during the month, according to National Bank.

National noted the week will also feature the release Monday of October manufacturing sales, which may have contracted 1.1% m/m on decreases in the chemical and wood products subsectors.

An update on the residential sector will also be provided with the release of housing starts data for November on Monday. After a sharp decline in the previous month, National expects the latter to have rebounded to 245K in annualized terms during the month, led by the multi-family segment. Meanwhile, National noted existing home sales also due out Monday could have decreased by 1.5% in November, as a gain in Calgary was likely more than offset by declines in Toronto and Montreal.

National added it will also monitor the release of the CFIB Business Barometer for December and the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) for October. On the Bank of Canada trail, Governor Tiff Macklem will address the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal on Tuesday, it noted.

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