Canadian Trade Revisions May Drive Q3 GDP Growth, Says Scotiabank

08:35 AM EST, 12/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian trade revisions will add to Q3 gross domestic product growth, said Scotiabank.

Instead of 2.6% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) GDP growth in Q3, the country may be crossing 3% the next time Statistics Canada takes a swing at the numbers, noted the bank.

The main issue, Scotiabank said, is that export figures released Thursday through September came in materially stronger than what the GDP accounts had assumed.

Exports were materially stronger and imports slightly softer than initially estimated, the bank added. Both developments support GDP, stronger exports directly lift output, while weaker imports reduce the import leakage, which boosts GDP. The GDP estimates had relied on assumptions in the absence of September trade data, reflecting the U.S. government shutdown and the importance of cross-border data sharing to the overall trade picture.

What Scotiabank doesn't know, however, are the implications of the trade figures for other parts of the GDP accounts, such as inventories. Still, the Bank of Canada would welcome better trade figures than initially estimated in Q3 GDP.

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