Canada's Trade Balance Swings Back to Surplus, Helped by Gold Exports, Says National Bank

11:18 AM EST, 12/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Although delayed by the United States government shutdown, the September report on Canadian international trade nonetheless contained interesting information, starting with the fact that the goods trade balance experienced its largest ever monthly change of $6.6 billion and moved into a surplus position for the first time in eight months, said National Bank of Canada.

This movement was due both to the steepest increase in exports in 19 months (+6.3%) and the largest decline in imports in 26 months (-4.1%).

Looking first at exports, the monthly gain was driven by a significant rise in shipments of metal and non-metallic mineral products (+22.7%), with the latter being led by a 30.2% increase in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, noted the bank. Although extremely volatile in recent times, exports in this latter category are nonetheless up 35.1% year over year for the first nine months of the year, an increase that reflects the steep rise in gold prices over this period.

Excluding gold, exports still rose by 4.5% month over month in September, driven by strong gains in aircraft (+72.3%), aluminum (+18.6%), and crude oil (+5.8%). In the case of aluminum, which has been hit hard by U.S. tariffs, this was the second consecutive monthly increase, but it still left shipments down 16.7% on an annual basis.

It was also encouraging to see Canadian exports to the U.S. increase by 4.6% during the month, pointed out National Bank. However, the bank refrains from declaring victory on this front, as Canadian shipments to the U.S. are still down 18.9% since January.

The unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals category also played an important role on the imports side, accounting for no less than 65.3% of the total decline. The 13.8% fall in inbound shipments of pharmaceutical products -- a subcategory included in the consumer goods segment -- also had a disproportionate impact on the headline imports figure.

Looking at the quarterly numbers, previously published national accounts data already indicated a positive contribution to growth from international trade in goods, so Thursday's report merely confirmed this observation, with export volumes rising sharply (+7.1% in annualized terms) in Q3 and import volumes falling precipitously (-8.3%), added National Bank.

The 33.3% annualized decline in imports of machinery and equipment during the quarter was also in line with the disappointing performance of business investment reported in gross domestic product data.

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