TD Economics Says September Trade Data Opens Door For "Modest" Upside Revision To Q3 GDP

10:46 AM EST, 12/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- September's trade data confirms that net trade was a tailwind for real GDP growth, with the door opened to a modest upside revision to Q3 GDP, and also confirms the broader recovery in Canadian exports following April's plunge, TD Economics said Thursday.

TD noted Canadian trade data is back on the docket after the U.S. government shutdown delayed its release last month. In special circumstances, Statistics Canada had to impute this missing trade data into the Q3 GDP release. Indeed, TD said, the data confirms that net trade was tailwind for real GDP growth. "We'd note that reported goods export volumes in the third quarter exceeded those estimated in the national accounts, opening the door to a modest upside revision to Q3 GDP," the bank added.

September's data, TD said, also confirms the broader recovery in Canadian exports following April's plunge. It added: "Near-term progress will be far from linear, but it is reasonable to believe that peak negative impacts from tariffs are in the rearview mirror. The key risk moving forward is how the trade backdrop will shake out as the U.S., Canada and Mexico prepare for a complex USMCA review."

TD noted Canada's trade position with the world "flipped" from a revised $6.4 billion deficit in August to a $153 million surplus in September. Canada's merchandise trade surplus with the United States narrowed by $3.9 billion to $8.5 billion in September.

Exports in September rose by a "hefty" 6.3% month over month after taking a decent step back the prior month. The increase was driven by both a healthy rise in exports to the United States (4.6% month over month) and non-U.S. markets (11% month over month).

Compositionally, nine of 11 product categories rose, led by the highly volatile exports of unwrought gold (30.2% month over month). Crude oil exports (5.8% month over month) and aircraft/other transportation exports (23.4% month over month) also helped.

Goods imports, on the other hand, were down by 4.1% month over month in September, but were also heavily influenced by movements in unwrought gold, which dragged imports of metal and non-metallic minerals down 27.8% month over month. Outside of this, seven of 11 product groups saw decreases on the month, with imports of consumer goods (-6.0% month over month) and pharmaceuticals (-13.8% month over month) also contributing to the decline.

In volume terms, merchandise exports were up 4.1% month over month while imports fell by 3.3%.

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