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BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 12/11/25 08:07 AM EST

08:07 AM EST, 12/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will publish the long-awaited merchandise trade for September at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, incorporating United States data on imports and some price components that were delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

Statistics Canada produced its own estimates for the Q3 GDP figures, which suggested the deficit narrowed from $6.3 billion to $1.25 billion in September. The bank's call for a $2.0 billion shortfall is a touch deeper, as imports will be supported by the removal of most retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. as of Sept. 1.

Canada will also release the Q3 national balance sheet at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. BMO pointed out that Canadian household debt levels increased again in Q3 as lower interest rates supported demand for mortgage and non-mortgage loans. In the meantime, disposable income growth slowed amid a weaker labour market.

The bank expects an uptick in the household debt-to-income ratio in the quarter, although the seasonal adjustment could pull the headline ratio lower. This metric has been trending up for the past three quarters, although it's still well below its all-time high of 186% reached at the end of 2021.

The US dollar (US) is faintly softer (BBDXY -0.05), with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) the same (CAD per USD +0.02%), stated BMO.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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